I grew up during the Cold War when the world was divided into two. The US-led free world which stood for democracy, private enterprise, cultural freedom, and political dominance by the West. On the other side were the Soviet Union and its East European allies that represented a surly and repressive universe of Communists, socialists and free thinking Third World nations that did not want to support what they saw as US imperialism trying to grab global supremacy. India, as we all know, was in the second group though it claimed to be non aligned. The reason was simple: Nehru, our first prime minister, swore by a fashionable socialism and felt this was India’s only route to self esteem. What it did however was enslave us to half a century of economic slavery during which only the Government and its coterie of crooks grew in power and pelf while the rest of us rotted under the fluttering flag of socialist doublespeak.
It was another Congressman who eventually changed all that: Narasimha Rao. Rao was no great shakes of a prime minister but the economy was in such a sorry state when he took over that he had no option but to shake off decades of ideological slavery and start the reforms process, a process that our current prime minister is now struggling to take ahead. He would have taken it much ahead during his first tenure but for the stupid obduracy of the Left. But the funny thing is that much as we may all abuse the Left for holding out on some of the more critical financial reforms, we are actually lucky they did. For while the economies of the so called free world powered by US capitalism came crashing down some months back, bringing down the entire global economy with it, including Russia and the other nations of the erstwhile Soviet Bloc which had in the meanwhile shrugged off their old Marxist dogmas and opted for a more open economy if not a more open society, countries like China and India somehow managed to stay afloat simply because they were not so strongly yoked to the global economy.
Now, if you look at the way the world is going, you will find a new bipolarity emerging. While the American economy contracted by over 6% in the last quarter, Europe by 10% and Japan by a scary 15%, China looks all set to grow by 7 to 8% this year and India by 6%. Even Indonesia will grow by 4%. The way things are, even though the short term is worrisome for everyone, in the long term we look all set for a new, emerging world order where certain Asian countries that have internal markets capable of sustaining their own growth could emerge as drivers of the world economy. So US, European and Japanese investors who were till now investing small parts of their portfolios in the so called emerging economies, to balance their global risks, could well end up doing just the opposite. They could be investing most of their monies in India and China where they can expect to get better, safer, more sustainable returns. The Indians banks too have proved themselves more stable compared to their risk-prone US counterparts.
Doubtless we live in a conjoined world today and it’s no longer possible for one half to go down while the other flourishes. So we need to temper our exuberance and realise that India and China cannot celebrate at the cost of the Western economies or Japan. Our futures are inexorably tied together. But yes, we are no longer the also-rans. We are the future partners of all growth, all progress and if we are able to tone down our greed and ostentation, we could perhaps be one of the leaders of tomorrow’s world. This would mean cutting down on over-consumption, the one factor that did the US in, show greater respect for the environment, reduce the gap between the extreme rich and the extreme poor, which creates the triggers for violence, terrorism and social unrest. It also means bridging issues of caste, religion and regional politics. Not through silly symbolism but by evolving genuine consensus. This, in turn, means less aggressive politics and more aggressive social and economic reforms. No, it does not mean throwing good money after bad politics. Fiscal deficits cannot forever fund change and growth. Nor can extortionist taxes that discourage entrepreneurship. We don’t need a police state. We need a state that looks after all its people, rich and poor, and offers them an equal opportunity to survive and succeed.
Can we make this happen? Or are we condemned to live forever in the shadow of our past histories, fighting against old prejudices and trying to right the wrongs of generations preceding us? Wouldn’t it be simpler to start with a clean slate and write our future the way we want to? Today’s young generation is all set to compete with the best in the world. We needn’t burden them with history or guilt
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