It’s amazing how much power a single word wields. It’s a simple two letter word No that keeps redefining our politics every time. Look at West Bengal. Whether Mamta finally delivers or not on the expectations of the people out there, one thing’s clear. It’s the electorate’s unequivocal No to the Left that has won her the recent elections and told the CPM three decades later that it’s time to pack up and go. They can keep screaming and ranting and telling the whole world that Mamta’s in cahoots with the Maoists but that’s not going to change anything. When people say No, they mean No.
I have seen this happen before. Indira Gandhi was the darling of the nation when she whacked Yahya Khan and dismembered Pakistan in 1971. East Pakistan became a proud, independent Bangladesh. I was there in Dacca watching it all unfurl. There was no doubt that she had nerves of steel. But it all came to nought when she imposed the Emergency four years later, in flagrant defiance of the public mood. In weeks, the splintered Opposition found a common cause. Durga became a demon overnight and, as a perplexed Mrs Gandhi watched, the electorate turned its back on her. The Congress was booted out and she herself was defeated, no, not by any mighty leader but by a crackpot called Raj Narain. It was the power of No. India said No to Mrs Gandhi and her politics of the Emergency.
Another time was when India which had voted Rajiv to absolute power on Mrs Gandhi’s assassination (the Congress under his leadership won 411 seats out of 542 in the Lok Sabha) decided, post Bofors and the series of scandals that rocked his Government, that enough was enough. So when Rajiv went for a renewal of his mandate in 1989, the people said No to the man they had once showered so much love and sympathy on. He lost the elections and was forced to yield way to a man he totally hated and had once called a traitor. Not that VP Singh lasted long either. He surrounded himself with so many rascals, many of them inherited from Rajiv, that even before a year had passed he was gone, upstaged in turn by his bete noir Chandra Shekhar.
No is a hugely powerful word in Indian politics. When people say No, they don’t consider the consequences. No one gives a damn if Mamta and the Maoists are together. Just like no one listened when Mrs Gandhi warned that the Janata Party could never sustain itself in power let alone run India. The nation had simply decided that they didn’t want her. Nothing else mattered. Rajiv tried his best to best to convince the electorate that VP Singh was going to mess with India because he had nothing positive to offer, that his entire politics was based purely on hating the Congress. But did India listen? No. We went through a long patch of political uncertainty after Rajiv with the third front never convincingly demonstrating its ability to govern. But the Congress was clearly out. When India says No, it means No.
It’s a lesson the Congress learnt the hard way. So has the BJP. And now, the Left. When patience wears thin, the electorate says No without caring about the consequences. We give a long rope to our leaders but once we tire of their nonsense, it’s a one way ticket to oblivion. Deve Gowda has tried every trick in the trade but no one’s ready to even acknowledge he exists. Out is out. VP Singh, a cleverer man, went on self imposed vanavas and thought that was his route to recouping moral authority and (eventually) power. It didn’t help. LK Advani can keep trying but it’s unlikely he will ever return to power. Laloo’s gone. Not only India but even Bihar’s forgotten him. Remember Ram Vilas Paswan? He held the record for the largest margin of victory in any election and was even listed in the Guinness Book. Does anyone know where he is?
I have a simple belief. You can smell the rage of the people a long time before it actually translates itself into a No in the elections. But most people in power are too self absorbed, too full of hubris to notice. So they miss the tell tale signs. They see themselves as invincible. That’s when suddenly the electorate turns around and says Get Out! All the money you have accumulated, all the power you wield can’t save you then. Anyone can come from anywhere and blow on your mighty edifice and it will come crashing down.
Does change actually need a trigger? Sometimes. But not necessarily. A scam. A scandal. An Emergency. A Nandigram. A stupid, overbearing slogan like Garibi Hatao or India Shining. Anything can set it off. Everyone can see it coming except, funnily, those who are in power. The truth is: People decide to say No long before they find a reason to say it. As for the replacement, it easily finds itself. Without fail.
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